CONTACTS:

L. Douglas Wilder
Distinguished Professor
804-827-0776
ldwilder@vcu.edu

Robyn McDougle
Associate Dean of Research and Outreach
804-721-6703
rdmcdougle@vcu.edu

Commonwealth Poll also finds Youngkin’s approval at 49%, Trump’s at 40% – and most voters disapproving of the president.

RICHMOND, Va. (July 16, 2025) - Today, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released findings on key policy issues from its latest Commonwealth Poll, conducted between June 19 and July 3. The poll captures voter sentiment in advance of Virginia’s 2025 statewide election, offering insights into candidate matchups and the issues most important to voters.

“The poll results show a clear message from the voters: Performance matters, and so do priorities. This poll should be a wakeup call,” said L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia. “Governor Youngkin’s slipping numbers among independents and the overwhelming disapproval of Trump make clear that Virginia voters are not buying political spin. They want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women’s rights and immigration policies. The shift from education to economic and personal freedoms shows an engaged electorate.”

Wilder continued: “As always has been maintained in this space, money and its influence will play a pivotal role in all of the elections. The people are speaking. The question is: Are the ‘leaders’ listening?”

Read the complete poll findings

In the race for governor, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate, leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, 49% to 37%, among registered voters in Virginia. This marks an increase in both Spanberger’s support and her lead compared with the Wilder School’s December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, which had Spanberger ahead 45% to 35%.

The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general show similar dynamics. Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads former radio host John Reid of the GOP, 46% to 36%, while Democratic former Del. Jay Jones holds a 47% to 38% advantage over Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares. Nearly half of independents (47%) report being undecided, a trend consistent across all three matchups. All three races fall outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.

Approval ratings

Among registered voters, 49% approve of the job Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is doing, while 39% disapprove. Support is highest among Republicans (84%) and lowest among Democrats (20%), with independents closely split (51% disapprove). These numbers reflect a slight decline overall for Youngkin compared with the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, when 51% of voters approved and 38% disapproved of the governor’s performance.

President Donald Trump remains less popular among Virginia voters. Overall, 40% approve of the job he is doing, while 55% disapprove. The partisan divide is sharp, with 84% of Republicans approving, compared with disapproval from 93% of Democrats and 66% of independents.

Top issues influencing voters

When asked which issue would most influence their vote in the upcoming election, 28% of voters identified the rising cost of living, followed by women’s reproductive rights (14%) and immigration (14%).

These results reflect a clear shift from the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, when 58% of voters cited the cost of living as their top concern and 14% named K-12 education as their second-most important issue. The findings suggest a reshaping of voter priorities heading into the fall. Read the full results of the poll. 

“Virginia voters are not buying political spin. They want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women’s rights and immigration policies.”
– Governor L. Douglas Wilder

About the VCU L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

Ranked in the top 15% of graduate schools of public affairs in the nation by U.S. News & World Report — No. 39 among the top 40 Graduate Schools of Public Affairs, No. 6 in Homeland Security, and No. 33 in Public Management and Leadership — the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University advances excellence in governance and promotes evidence-based public policy across Virginia and beyond.

The school offers a range of graduate, post-baccalaureate, and doctoral programs in key policy areas, including criminal justice; homeland security and emergency preparedness; public administration; public policy and administration; and urban and regional planning.

Additionally, the Wilder School is home to robust Centers and Institutes for Public Policy, which provide applied research and services in state and local government, social equity, and leadership to clients in government, nonprofit organizations, businesses, and the general public. Learn more at wilder.vcu.edu.

About the VCU Commonwealth Poll

For nearly three decades, the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll within the Centers and Institutes for Public Policy has been an important bellwether for policymakers in Virginia and beyond on a range of topics, including voting intentions, economic and workforce development, education, housing, public health, public safety and racial equity. The Commonwealth Poll is a featured 2020 Presidential Election Poll by CNN, approved based on a rigorous review of methodologies and assumptions that ensure that CNN-cited polling entities are employing the gold standard in public opinion research.

Poll Methodology

The Summer 2025 Commonwealth Poll, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 809 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Findings referenced in this release reflect the views of 764 respondents who identified as registered voters. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (80) and cell phone (729, including 558 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from June 19, 2025, to July 3, 2025.

In telephone survey research, design weights are often employed to reduce bias, correcting for differences in the probability of selection due to non-response and non-coverage. The sample was weighted in an exit poll design to match the 2021 Virginia electorate, that is, Virginia voters who voted in the 2021 gubernatorial election. The geographic and demographic weighting parameters were obtained from the 2021 Virginia CNN Exit Poll. Two sampling frames were employed: one frame representing those with a listed landline and a second frame consisting of RDD cellular numbers. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample. Weighting was accomplished using the Anesrake package, which implements the American National Election Study (ANES) weighting algorithm. The total sample design effect using the exit poll weighting design for this survey is 1.46 and the margin of error for the entire sample is ±4.16 percentage points.

A combination sample consisted of a listed landline sample and a cellular random digit dial (RDD) sample to represent all adults in Virginia who have access to a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided in their proper proportions according to state telephone type usage by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. The cellular RDD sample was prescreened for disconnected numbers.

As many as seven attempts were made to contact every landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of day and different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Each telephone number received at least one daytime call when necessary.

In addition to the five attempted phone calls for each cell number, cell numbers that were not reachable in five attempts were sent a message via Short Message Service (SMS) with one final request to participate in the study. The SMS message contained a link that would lead the respondent to the internet survey. Of the 729 surveys completed with cell sample, 66 were completed using the link provided in the SMS message. For the landline sample, the computer questionnaire instructed interviewers to ask to speak with the youngest adult currently at home. Selecting respondents in this manner has resulted in data that closely mirrors the population’s age when combined with cellular sampling. For the cellular sample type, interviews were conducted with an adult who answered the telephone. Response rates were computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards . Thus, the response rate for the landline sample is 6.0 percent. The response rate for the cellular sample is 8.8 percent.